Monetary policy report 3/18
with financial stability assessment
Chart 1.1a Key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 1.1b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 1.1c CPI with fan chart
Chart 1.1d CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 1.2 GDP for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.3 Oil price. USD/barrel
Chart 1.4 Money market rates for Norway's trading partners
Chart 1.5 GDP for mainland Norway and Regional Network's indicator for output growth
Chart 1.6 Growth in employment in the QNA and the regional network
Chart 1.7 Money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Chart 1.8 Interest rates
Chart 1.9 GDP for mainland Norway
Chart 1.10 Petroleum investment
Chart 1.11 Unemployment according to LFS and NAV
Chart 1.12 Wages
Chart 2.1 Global PMI
Chart 2.2 Policy rates and estimated forward rates in selected countries
Chart 2.3 Yields on ten-year government bonds in selected countries
Chart 2.4 Equity price indexes in selected countries
Chart 2.5 Imports for Norway's trading partners
Chart 2.6 Headline and core inflation in selected countries
Chart 2.7 Wage growth and estimated output gap in selected countries
Chart 2.8 Indicator of international inflationary impulses to imported consumer goods with compositional effect (IPC)
Chart 2.9 Unemployment in the US
Chart 2.10 Unemployment in the euro area
Chart 2.11 Exchange rates in selected emerging economies
Chart 2.12 Total OECD oil inventories
Chart 2.13 OPEC surplus production capacity
Chart 2.14 PMI for the EU
Chart 2.15 PMI for new export orders for the EU
Chart 3.1 Norwegian three-month money market premium
Chart 3.2 Three-month money market rate in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates
Chart 3.3 Cross-check model for the krone exchange rate
Chart 3.4 GDP for Mainland Norway
Chart 3.5 Output growth as reported by the Regional Network
Chart 3.6 Consumer confidence
Chart 3.7 Household consumption and real disposable income
Chart 3.8 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income
Chart 3.9 House prices and household debt ratio
Chart 3.10 Housing investment
Chart 3.11 Corporate investment revised
Chart 3.12 Expected change in business investment
Chart 3.13 Growth in exports from mainland Norway and imports to Norway's trading partners
Chart 3.14 Employment acording to QNA
Chart 3.15 Unemployment as a share of the labour force
Chart 3.16 Twelve-month-change in unemployment
Chart 3.17 New job seekers per business day
Chart 3.18 Job vacancies
Chart 3.19 Employment rate
Chart 3.20 Capacity constraints and labour supply constraints as reported by Regional Network
Chart 3.21 Model estimated output gap
Chart 3.22 Productivity per employee
Chart 3.23 Population growth
Chart 3.24 CPI, CPI-ATE and energy prices
Chart 3.25 CPI-ATE by supplier sector
Chart 3.26 CPI-ATE in MPR 3/18 with fan chart
Chart 3.27 Wage, wage norm and wage expectations
Chart 3.28 Labour share for mainland Norway.
Chart 3.29 Wage growth in Norway and for main trading partners
Chart 3.30 Domestically produced goods and services in CPI-ATE
Chart 3.31 CPI and CPI-ATE
Chart 3.32 Energipriser
Chart 3.33 Indicators of underlying inflation
Chart 3.34 Expected inflation five years ahead
Chart 3.35 Structural non-oil deficit and 3% of the Government Pension Fund Global
Chart 3.36 Public sector demand
Chart 3.37 Petroleum investment
Chart 3.38 Field development projects
Chart 4.1 Consumer price index
Chart 4.2 GDP for mainland Norway and employment.
Chart 4.3 Real interest rate and nominal interest rate
Chart 4.4a CPI-ATE conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 2/18
Chart 4.4b Output gap conditional on new information and key policy rate forecast in MPR 2/18
Chart 4.5a Projected key policy rate with fan chart
Chart 4.5b Projected output gap with fan chart
Chart 4.5c Projected CPI with fan chart
Chart 4.5d Projected CPI-ATE with fan chart
Chart 4.6 Real interest rate
Chart 4.7 Key policy rate projections
Chart 4.8 Factors behind the change in the key policy rate since the last MPR
Chart 5.1 Debt as a share of GDP in emerging economies
Chart 5.2 Capital ratios in European banks
Chart 5.3 Credit mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP
Chart 5.4 Decomposed credit gap
Chart 5.5 Credit to households and non­financial enterprises in mainland Norway
Chart 5.6 Household debt ratio, debt service ratio and interest burden
Chart 5.7 Debt-servicing capacity and equity ratio of listed companies
Chart 5.8 House prices relative to disposable income
Chart 5.9 Change in house prices in Norway
Chart 5.10 Housing starts and households in Norway
Chart 5.11 Real commercial property prices
Chart 5.12 Return on equity for large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.13 Decomposed change in the profits of large Norwegian banks
Chart 5.14 Large Norwegian banks’ Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio
Chart 5.15 Debt as a share of after-tax income
Chart 5.16 Share of households with debt exceeding five times gross income
Chart 5.17 Net interest payments share income